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on Trump Plunge

I had long suspected Trump would win, and have been cutting longs and building shorts since October.  The key was to keep a small long book and a small short book.

Another important preparation I did was to investigate whethere Trump wins would be good for market or not.  It seemed he is not so bad for market afterall, calling for higher infrastructure & lower corporate taxes. His take on the Fed, however, is uncertain.

Last night, I added VIX longs. VIX has came down significantly to 16 after FBI drops accusation on Hiliary this Sunday. However, This did not make her more likely to win the presidential election than a few days ago.

The position was oversized and cut to 1/6 by the end of US closing. (oh well..)

During today’s plunge, I covered my long VIX and short HSI in the first plunge (around 11:00).

I built a  sizable long in Mexico PESO , speculating that it had overshot ( comeon, 11% a day?), and keep adding in the afternoon

I repurchased some stocks I have sold before the election, adding net long exposure

I longed the HSI futures as Trump win was almost certain and HSI started rebound

the incremental FX & index positions should be settled in coming few days as market rebounds.

The fate of Deutsche bank became ever bleaker now.

 

Delineating from China Policy

No doubt, many have profited from speculating on China’s policies.

Yet, I’m trying to steer away as much as possible, from policy concept stocks, even they may be real, substantial near term beneficiaries.

Reasons are simple:

  1. I’d be always behind market since I’m not in the close circle of CCP
  2. Chinese officials adobts a fluid policy enforcement doctrine. This means things could turn 180 degrees overnight.
  3. This is especially true for government spending related policies

1) means cost disadvantage, while 2) induces pricing uncertainty & limits portfolio exposure.

大忌,避之則吉。

 

 

迷宮遊戲

細個有段時間,非常愛玩2d迷宮,仲自己畫埋一份。

舊年睇樓,業主個仔玩緊呢種迷宮波,我一玩就好鍾意。

上年在台灣買左一隻。原來美國仲多款…

perplexus的圖片搜尋結果

好久沒有敗玩具了,儲齊一套不過份吧

 

Investor’s reading habits

Starting the first few days of my investment life, I’ve been reading mainland Chinese news in mainland media/ newspaper. They are always ahead of HK media, somtimes by a few minutes, sometimes by 1-2 days.  And I read HKEJ for the insightful articles by 林行止 and 曹仁超.

Bloomberg is a must read, too.  Sometimes I read The Big Picture Blog.  However I spent typically 1/10 weak of time reading english financial media.

This hasn’t been changed even after the financial tsunami.

Recently, I’ve picked up reading the Economist & FT.  If you compare the depth of analysis with HK media… there is good reason to simply skip HK financial media except for company specific news.

In a globally conmingled financial market, a good investor need to have a deeper understanding of global political & economic issues so as to exploit more opportunities.

Even more importantly, to avoid uncessarily losses.

Save your life, read English  media.

 

投資與投機

投資者,尤其是價值投資者,最重要的判斷,是價值和它的變化

投機者,最重要的判斷,是價格的變化

看得準價值,不一定看得準價格。[短期尤然],所以不一定賺錢。

看得準價格變化,則一定賺錢 。

所以,厲害的投機者,看起來往往比厲害的投資者厲害

 

DB’s mystic plunge

2 weeks ago, US DOJ sued Deutsche Bank (DB) for bad practices in selling mortgage securities. They asked for a $14B fine.

2 days ago, The Germany Gov’t denied plans to rescue DB, despite its systematic importance.

Yesterday, bloomberg reported that some hedge funds have imposed position limits in settling with DB.  Some withdrew their cash from this bank, too.

DB plunged to 33 years low afterwards.

A few questions come to mind when I linked these news

  1. why people didn’t sell 2 weeks ago (share price was stable) but yesterday?
  2. How large was the withdrawal compared as a % of assets?  Was it significant?
  3. Shortselling of DB surged by 50% ( from 2% to 3% of share outstanding). in a single day.
  4. why bloomberg didn’t report any hedge fund ‘withdrawals 2 days ago..  Was it co-incident?
  5. why the news came right before end of Q3.. ?

To me, prudent funds wouldn’t hold their DB position for so long after the release of DOJ news. This is substantial since the fine is close to the entire market cap of DB.  ‘Optimism’ alone wouldn’t account for stability in share price.

As a skeptist.. I would think that some hedge funds built a large short position in DB , THEN they somehow leaked the news of ‘position limit news’ to bloomberg. Thus earning alpha.

The most likely thing they would do, is to cover shorts and reap the profit right before end of Q3, hence the rebound of DB must happen today..

Based on this line of reasoning, I made 10% profit from buying DB today.

 

 

其實可能真係好小事

朋友飯局。剛辭職的A說很忙,原來剛幫他老闆個女作文,題目是: “生活上的中西文化差異"。

我第一個反應: 點解你會幫你老闆個女作文?
A: 個題目咁深,中學生點識呢?

我第二個反應: 點解你老闆唔自己幫個女作文?
A:我得閒,冇所謂啦,可以幫佢做

我第三個反應:點解你老闆個女唔自己作文?
A:細路仔壓力好大ga,如果作文分數低,會影響好多野ga…

講了一分鐘,完全沒有想到一件小事對自己同細路的壞效果。講來講去,只是分數,壓力,朋輩,個個都咁做自己唔做好蝕底

好不容易聽完了她講的理由,以0.99秒速度將喉嚨邊果幾百句粗口繙繹如下:

  • 如果所有野識哂,使鬼番學?
  • 一篇作文低分幾唔閒?咁小事就要做假?
  • 細路唔識做功課,你幫佢做,佢唔識番工,你又幫佢返? 第時佢生唔到仔,係咪要兩老親自落場….[下刪六萬字]

咁教法,我地下一代,一係天才,一係廢人。講完

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